Global rail booms as closed markets now cost EU industry €97 billion per year
Rail is predicted to boom into the 2030’s, despite growing trade challenges that restrict global market access for EU rail supply companies, according to the 11th World Rail Market Study.
UNIFE Chair Martin Sion and Director General Enno Wiebe today at InnoTrans 2026 announced that the global rail market is projected to expand by 3.2% per year until 2029-2031 to €266.8 billion, with the market size reaching €221 billion as of 2023-2025.
EU rail supply companies can now only access 56% of the world’s global rail markets, down from 59% in the previous study (2024), and from 61% in 2022. This confirms a concerning long-term decline from historic highs of 70% market access in the 2008 edition of the World Rail Market Study.
This means by 2025, missed business opportunities between total global markets and markets that are accessible to EU rail supply companies has risen to around €97 billion per year.
Despite this, the study confirms that the global rail supply market grew by 4.6% annually between 2021-2023 and 2023-2025, fully recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Forecasts suggest Western and Eastern European rail markets will grow 3.7% and 3.6% per year respectively between now and 2031, with market liberalisation of rail operations across Europe set to drive increased orders and market activity.
Even with geopolitical challenges, cuts to public budgets and an increased politicisation of transport projects globally, other markets across the world are set to show strong growth.
Asia Pacific is expected to remain the largest region and will grow 3.5% per year despite China’s expected slowing rail market growth, while India and other countries in the region are expected to ramp up rail infrastructure upgrades.
North America is set to grow by 3.0% per year in the years ahead, while Latin America’s rail market will increase strongly at a projected 5.5% per year due to a growing pipeline of urban, freight and passenger rail projects.
Africa and the Middle East will see more narrower growth for the period, growing just 1.2% per year, while the Commonwealth of Independent States will grow at just 0.7% per year.
The World Rail Market Study is conducted by Bain & Company and commissioned by UNIFE – The European Rail Supply Industry Association, examining 66 countries which account for 99% of global rail traffic and the full rail supply value chain, including infrastructure, command and control signalling, rolling stock, services, and turnkey management.
It comes at it is available for the first time as a brand-new AI enhanced digital edition, which will be presented in several dedicated modules to different market segments, available here and in print.
Quotes attributable to UNIFE Director General Enno Wiebe
“Strong global growth and full order books for the industry are very positive, however seeing global access for the European Rail Supply Industry decline for the third study in a row is concerning.”
“While we have sought a more level-playing field and adherence to trade norms, we must stress how important European Commission initiatives like Global Gateway have become to keep developing new markets.”
Quotes attributable to UNIFE Chair & Alstom CEO Martin Sion
"The World Rail Market Study confirms that demand for rail is strong and growing, as countries increasingly recognise the strategic role rail plays in supporting inclusive growth, connecting regions and strengthening resilient transport networks."
“As Chair of UNIFE, I am proud of the contribution the European Rail Supply Industry makes in meeting this demand. Together, we must continue to drive the innovation, technology and industrial excellence needed to unlock the full potential of rail and help shape the future of mobility."
More about the 2026 World Rail Market Study: https://www.wrms.study
